http://ideas.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/12/04/thinking-outside-the-idiot-box/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw
"Thinking Outside the Idiot Box"
December 4, 2008
by Tom Kuntz
The New York Times
Here we have an example of someone who was predicting exactly this current economic crisis, to the laughter and derision of all the talking heads around him. As it turns out, he was correct.
The question is: did his beliefs and predictions actually track the truth, or did he just happen to be right? After all, if we look hard enough, for any given event, we'll probably find someone who predicted it. (A broken clock is right twice a day). The question is: how do we tell who's tracking the truth (especially ahead of time)? How do we distinguish them from all the idiots populating discourse?
Science?
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